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Having scored nine times in his first seven Premier League games, Manchester City striker Erling Haaland has begun the season with incredible momentum.

Even though this doesn't represent his most impressive beginning to a season - he found the net 11 times in his initial seven matches in two seasons ago and ten in the previous campaign - it still puts him three strikes clear in the initial race for this season's Premier League Golden Boot.

The fact that zero of his nine conversions have been spot-kicks makes it all the more impressive.

Why Haaland Stands Out

Naturally, fitness issues could potentially disrupt in the final top scorer outcome, but there are two primary explanations why Haaland is so heavily favored for the prize so soon in the campaign.

Firstly, the number of goals he has already scored - and, just as importantly, the total and standard of opportunities he's receiving.

Furthermore, the sluggish beginning his usual rivals for the award have made.

Chance Quality Assessment

A player's expected goals number (xG) indicates how many goals a Premier League player has historically scored from the total and standard of chances he has had.

It is not a statistic haphazardly selected by statistics boffins, but by Premier League history.

When examining at attackers' xG statistics in the Premier League so far this season from regular situations, the Scandinavian attacker is obtaining considerably more quality chances to score than any other player.

Actually, even if Haaland wasn't superior at converting opportunities than any other player in the competition, he would nonetheless have netted over double the amount goals as the remainder of the league.

Scoring Situation Assessment

This is illustrated by analyzing the total and standard of opportunities that attackers have encountered in the Premier League so far.

Haaland has attempted 29 efforts so far this term, twelve additional compared to any other player.

Interestingly, this is not particularly unusual for him - he had previously registered more non-penalty shots at this juncture in the last two seasons (30 in 2023-24 and 34 in the 2024-25 campaign).

What is, however exceptional even for Haaland is the standard of scoring situations he has had this term. His shots have had an chance quality metric of 0.27 per attempt.

What that figure means is that footballers have traditionally scored the efforts he's registered at a 27% success ratio.

Of players to take at minimum ten attempts, only Chelsea midfielder Enzo Fernandez has had more straightforward opportunities to convert per attempt - due to a few simple finishes against the Hammers and Seagulls.

Haaland's xG of 0.27 is much higher than the 0.17 expected goals per shot he had at the beginning of the previous campaign.

In short, the opportunities he has had in 2025-26 have been considerably more favorable to convert from in a realigned Citizens squad than those at the beginning of last season.

Historical Comparison

Opening a term so strongly is, as noted earlier, not unusual for Haaland. Following seven matches last term he had registered ten strikes - a quartet more than every other footballer and six more than Mohamed Salah.

But it was the Anfield star who won the Golden Boot with 29 conversions, seven more than the Etihad attacker.

In the new campaign, while Haaland has begun spectacularly, Salah has netted fifty percent fewer goals and had fifty percent fewer opportunities (xG) than at this juncture last term.

Actually this has been the quietest start to a English top-flight campaign the Pharaohs star has made.

Rivals' Slow Start

It is not just Salah who has started slowly either. Upon reviewing at the eleven leading goalscorers in the Premier League last season, Haaland has netted the same number goals as the additional ten attackers combined so far.

Whether due to physical problems - multiple prominent forwards - long-running transfer sagas in a specific forward's circumstances or just due to the fact that their clubs have faced difficulties (Bryan Mbeumo, Chris Wood, Ollie Watkins and Matheus Cunha), Haaland's likely rivals in the contest for the top scorer award have underperformed so far.

European Top Scorer Competition

Even as Haaland seems the clear favourite for the English top scorer award, what about the European top scorer prize that is presented to the footballer scoring the most in Europe's top-five leagues?

That competition is significantly tighter at this early stage because Harry Kane and Kylian Mbappe have likewise begun in superb fashion, with 11 and 9 conversions each.

The reality Haaland has registered multiple conversions and has the highest xG of the three players without having taken any penalties makes him the frontrunner.

However, because Kane and Mbappe are some of the most excellent converters in European football in terms of overperforming their xG, the battle continues intensely.